Archive for the ‘money’ Category

Swine flu, retail and you !

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

Swine flu

Swine flu

Sometimes in retail you’ve really got to wonder what’s going to come at you next? July & August were the months of the Swine flu crisis eroding consumer confidence.

Inspired by yet more sensationalist jounalism, the Swine flu pandemic panic swept across the country. Now, we all know that no more people are dying of Swine flu than normal seasonal flu, and if you’re vaguely healthy you don’t have much to worry about, yet this would be hard to believe from the headlines.

All year we’ve had to put up with all the scare stories about the economy terrorising everyone and now its another juicy story, with half the population smothering themselves in antiseptic handwipes (bet their sales results are wicked) As a result, footfall has been down, and as we all know you can’t sell stuff to people who aren’t in your shop. (although online retailers aren’t complaining !)

Flu in any of its forms is not going to quietly depart, so how many sick days can the nation take, hiding under the collective duvet trying to avoid it? Rising sick days isn’t a groovy prospect for retailers – It reduces customer service, possibly opening hours and sensationalist scare stories keep consumers away from usually crowded shopping areas, so most businesses would welcome a little more balanced reporting perspective.

So, where’s the good news ? Probably the best news around for importers & retailers is the recovery of the pound. In July 2008 the pound was worth $2.00, but by January of this year its value had sunk to $1.35 (which is a twenty three year low, just to put this in perspective) Earlier this month it recovered to $1.70, which is an absolute lifeline in a difficult year for smaller retailers and importers.

The big question now is whether the pound’s recovery will be a sustained one…?
Here’s hoping….!

Einstein’s favourite theory

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Einstein's favourite theory

Einstein's favourite theory


Albert Einstein the brilliant scientist, Nobel prize winner, humanitarian and Philosopher called this the most amazing phenomenon of the universe !

The law of compound interest !

What is the law of compound interest i hear those of you who hate numbers ask.

It’s the law that states that if you have for example £1 today and you have it in a magical bank with 10% interest – next time you check you’ll have £1.10 which is nice, but not lifechanging, but the real mystery of this law is that any interest that now comes to you, doesn’t come on the original £1 but on the £1.10 – it keeps on growing! It ‘s the gift that keeps on giving !

Most of us know that compound interest applies to money. But you can apply it to any area of your life or your business. Because you can be sure that if compound interest is not working for you, it’s working against you.

If you invest in something and accumulate interest, that interest compounded makes you money. But if you borrow money, you pay interest and that interest compounded costs you more money. In both situations, a day of interest is not going to rock anyone’s boat, but taken over time and compounded the effect can become huge !

Just like the rule of 80/20 the phenomenon of compound interest relates to whatever situation you apply it to, so this is not just about building societies, but about business, health and relationships, nothing is immune.

If you eat a fatty meal today it won’t kill you, but if you eat one every day never allowing your body to recover, eventually you will be really unhealthy. Likewise eating an apple today doesn’t make you a healthy person, but eating an apple a day every day, will help you to be a healthy person.

In business, being rude to one customer today probably won’t ruin your business (unless they’re extraordinarily well connected) but do that every day and you won’t have much of a business for very long. Conversely go out of your way for one customer each day and you’ll increase the goodwill in your business. This is the law of compound interest.

Everyday we make hundreds of choices – what to wear, what to eat, who to employ, how to market ourselves, where to advertise. Each choice in itself is a small thing, and either positive or negative, but taken together over a period of time they propel you to either where you want to be, either in a positive or a negative direction. While we often don’t see the bigger picture, being too bound up in our own little dramas, making as many positive decisions a day as you can is only going to help you and your business move forward.

The more positive associations you have, the more leverage and momentum you create, remember the law of compound interest and aim for some positive decisions each day to get the law working for you….

Not a budget for business ….

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Small comfort for small businesses ...

Small comfort for small businesses ...


Having had a little time to review the Chancellors budget (not my favourite weekend activity) it looks like overall, it was a bit of a missed opportunity. While the borrowing figures of £175 billion (and that’s just this year) with £173 billion next year, are enough to make me feel a bit giddy. There’s the news that economy is going to shrink by 3.5% to digest too…

With such big borrowing sums being bandied about, its small wonder that there’s small support for our small businesses.

Missing in action was a reduction of employers’ National Insurance contribution rate and tighter government control over bank charges(which would have been nice!).

There was no extension of VAT reduction to 15 per cent for a further 12 months and there were only a few real high points.

1. Main capital allowance has doubled to 40%, which is helpful for those of us investing, as we all know that cashflow is the numbero uno in the priorities list, particularly in a recession.

2. An extension of the three year carry back means that loss-making businesses can reclaim tax on profits made in the last three years, this should help lots of small businesses.

3. Business rates: The spread of uplift is a positive move for small businesses.

4. VAT threshold increased: While the extension of the reduction didn’t happen, the raising of the threshold to £68,000 at least means that many small businesses will fall outside the VAT bracket.

5. The introduction of a top-up supply chain insurance to help companies protect themselves against non-payment.

But there were also some nasty surprises for those of us wondering why we do in fact bother?

1. The 2p rise on fuel duty – this always has an impact on costs somewhere down the line.

2. No change to corporation tax rates with the rise from 20-21% remaining in place;

So if we cast our minds back as to why we did set up in business… if it was for the long hours and ever present responsibility, the learning how to steer a sometimes unmanageable ship in difficult waters, or the satisfaction of knowing that our bank is receiving good returns on their oh so reasonable charges….. or maybe it was because we just love giving the opportunity to the government through our employment of our staff, to increase the tax aspect of the PAYE and NI and add some more paperwork?

If, however it was to be successful and be recompensed for our hard work, then you have to wonder if the opportunity to earn, which is a stimulant for most entrepreneurs is going to seem as bright if the government is going to reserve the right to take nearly 60% in tax and NI when we do….

Ok so there aren’t many directors of small businesses who earn over £150,000 but it’s a nice dream….!

So thanks Mr Darling, but not that much !

It’s a matter of Principle !

Thursday, March 19th, 2009

Follow the money

Follow the money

Wow, what happened to Principles and how on earth did it all happen so fast?

Principle’s demise is one of the instances of severely troubled retailers using the new pre-pack administration. This is quite a controversial insolvency process that had new rules instigated at the start of this year (did they have a crystal ball?)

The pre-pack process, frequently involves the swift sale of a business back to its original owners, but free of unsecured debt. It has prompted concern that suppliers have been left in the lurch, and as a supplier to businesses myself, you’ve got to wonder, who’s paying the suppliers?

Sure Debenhams have bought the stock, but if the suppliers don’t get paid, there’s a knock on effect down the food chain, which could mean many suppliers businesses going under, which is hardly fair, as the thing with these agreements is that they happen behind closed doors and there is no advance warning to unsecured creditors. The suppliers are blindly trading right up to the point of administration with these companies.

If there was more transparency, the client could make a choice over how much they supply to the company. Pre-packs have been used recently by retailers including the tea and coffee specialist Whittard of Chelsea, Officers Club and Envy to name a few.

So what actually happened? Basically Mosaic (the parent company) owned Principles, Shoe Studio, Oasis, Warehouse and Karen Millen among others. With debts of up to £450 million. Yes, that’s million pounds Sterling, they couldn’t keep refinancing their loans in the current economic climate. They entered the pre-pack agreement in order to shed some unprofitable sites, and if we’re honest, a lot of debt, so their debt total would be more manageable and make them more attractive to investors.

Now Mosaic were partly owned by Baugur,(the parent of the parent company if you like) Baugur are an Icelandic investment group who snapped up stakes in brands on the UK high street on a ten year shopping spree, their investments included House of Fraser, Hamleys, Iceland and of course Mosaic. The Baugur group hit the buffers in the wake of the Icelandic banking collapse in October and after building up debt as it expanded.

Baugur has now filed for bankruptcy after Icelandic courts refused to grant its application to extend its protection from creditors(Hmmm rather an interesting concept really). Baugur had to file for bankrupcy after its UK arm was forced into administration by Landsbanki, although they still have stakes in All Saints, Jane Norman and Whistles. Management at some of these retailers are now looking to make deals exploring debt-for-equity swaps or management buyouts.

So the knock on effect down the chain is clearly visible. What hasn’t been transparent up until now is the sometimes perilous life cycle of retailers. I remember years ago the MD of a very cool chain of 27 shops telling me that his stores didn’t make a profit for 10 months of the year. At the time I was shocked, as independent retailers just don’t have that luxury! Try having that conversation with your bank manager as the owner of an independent business – it will be short !

As small businesses we may be standing in awe looking at the huge figures that these businesses are talking about, but the principles are the same, whatever the size of business, don’t borrow more than you can afford to pay back…!

So, what’s the moral here? Well, the most obvious one is that borrowing in a vibrant economy is ok, but in a contracting economy, spare money is scarcer than hen’s teeth, and if you’re going to borrow an insane amount of money, you’d better check out not only your lender, but your lender’s lender and so on up the food chain.

As the saying goes “Follow the money ! ”